The Road Ahead: What 2025 Looks Like for Freight

Written in December 2024, as a look at the year ahead. It is kept here as a record of what the industry expected going into 2025, not as a current forecast.

Trucking's recovery

After two hard years, North American trucking was showing signs of turning. US shipment requests had risen 9% in the second quarter of 2024. What was holding rates down was not demand but supply: too many trucks chasing the same freight, with costs that had not come back down. The expectation was a full recovery by late 2025, conditional on interest rates falling.

Canada was in a worse position. Rising fuel costs and falling freight rates had put real financial stress on carriers, and loan defaults were climbing. Demand was expected to grow, which would bring some stability as the market recovered.

LTL and truckload

LTL was the healthier of the two. As e-commerce grew, more businesses were shipping smaller and more often, which is exactly what LTL is for — and that growth was expected to continue through 2025.

On the truckload side, the oversupply of trucks was starting to ease. With demand strengthening at the same time, truckload rates looked likely to improve towards the end of the year.

Interest rates

The US economy was projected to grow 2.5% in 2025, but with rates at 4%–4.25%, borrowing costs were limiting investment in fleets and infrastructure, and softer consumer spending added to the pressure.

Canada was expected to come down further, to 2.25%–2.5% by late 2025, which would ease borrowing costs and encourage investment. Against that sat a C$20 billion budget deficit, which left the longer-term picture uncertain.

Tariffs

The proposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico into the US were the largest single unknown. The expected effects were higher prices, reduced freight demand, and more friction on every cross-border move.

Automation

AI and automation were moving from pilot projects into daily operations — predictive tools for planning, automated handling of routine paperwork. The benefit carriers were chasing was fewer errors and faster turnaround rather than headcount.

Mid-sized carriers and 3PLs

Mid-sized carriers and third-party logistics providers were taking share from larger competitors. Agility and direct customer contact were worth more to shippers than scale.

Rail and fuel

Rail carriers were exploring alternatives to diesel to meet environmental targets, including battery-electric and hydrogen fuel cell locomotives.

What shippers were advised to do

• Diversify supply chains. Nearshoring reduces exposure to global disruption.
• Invest in systems. Automation had stopped being optional for anyone handling volume.
• Watch policy. Tariffs and interest rates were both live variables.
• Choose partners for responsiveness rather than size.

For where things stand now, see our latest shipping news, or ask us what we are seeing on a particular lane.